New Hampshire presidential primary - MilectoNew Hampshire presidential primary - Milecto

Donald Trump, the former president, beat Nikki Haley, the only remaining Republican candidate, in Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire to win the nomination for the second time in a row. Before becoming governor, Haley was Trump’s ambassador to the UN. She wanted to close the gap to make her case for staying in the race. On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden easily won the primary, even though he wasn’t on the official ticket.

What we learned from the New Hampshire primary:

A PRICKLY PATH

In New Hampshire, most people thought that Haley could only make a strong case if she could keep Trump’s number of votes below 50%. She could use this to back up her claim that a lot of Republicans would rather Trump step down than win.

But on Tuesday, she fell short of this goal. Instead, she put herself at the head of an alliance against Trump, but it doesn’t look like that coalition is big enough to get her to where she wants to be. As more votes are counted, it looks like Trump will beat her by a large margin, maybe even by more than 10 points.

Before voters even cast their votes, Haley’s team said there was a way for her to win, even if she didn’t win in New Hampshire. Betty Ankney, who was in charge of the campaign, said that situations in a number of future states would be similar to those in New Hampshire. Citizens who are not affiliated with any political party can get involved in politics and vote in these places, which could help Haley’s campaign.

If you live in South Carolina and want to vote in the Republican primary on February 24, you can do so even if you didn’t vote in the Democratic primary on February 3. When that is over, Michigan has an open primary and a closed conference.

Super Tuesday is coming up on March 5. There will be 874 delegates up for grabs in 15 states and one U.S. territory. It was said by Ankney that about two-thirds of these members are from states with open or mostly open elections.

She named Virginia, Massachusetts, Texas, and North Carolina as places where Haley might be able to get support from moderate or independent voters who are willing to be persuaded.

Still, the whole situation might soon stop being important. If Trump does much better than Haley in South Carolina, which is her home state and where she was governor before, the pressure on her to drop out of the race is likely to grow.

Within this time window, Haley has one month to run for office, get money, and become the only Republican candidate left running against Trump.

RED FLAGS

Trump’s win in New Hampshire wasn’t as big as his win in Iowa last week, but that was to be expected in a state where most of the voters are moderate Republicans and independents. In an interesting twist, the town-level map showed that Trump lost to Haley in many of the same places that he lost to Biden in 2020. This is a big worry for the Trump team, since Biden has a seven-point lead in the state, which makes fraud claims hard to believe.

Edison Research did exit polls that showed a big increase in independent voters who backed Haley. Of those voters, 60% chose her. In addition, Haley did better than Trump among college grads, getting 56% to his 41%. The topic of abortion was brought up as an important one. It didn’t play a big part in the primary, but it could in a runoff against Biden. Even though she seemed to have more conservative views on the issue than Trump, Haley got 64% to 30% of people who wanted to protect abortion rights.

If she is elected president, Haley has said she will take a practical approach to the problem of abortion, while Trump has kept his lead among Christian voters. Based on these factors, Biden might still be able to put together an alliance in November that can beat Trump if he wins the nomination.

TRUMP STRENGTHS

Trump continued to show how powerful he is among Republicans, that much is clear. Edison says that he did much better than Haley among working-class voters without college degrees, getting 66% of the vote from people making less than $50,000 a year. Trump also got a lot of support from people who go to church events regularly and people who own guns.

In preparation for a possible repeat with Biden, Trump kept his hold on people who were unhappy or angry with the way things were going in the country. He won most of the votes of people who thought the economy was “not so good or poor.” In particular, Trump got 74% of the support of people who thought their families were getting behind on payments.

New Hampshire - Milecto

When people in New Hampshire were asked to pick the candidate they thought had the best chance of beating Biden in November, Trump easily beat Haley, getting 59% of the vote to 39% for Haley. This shows that most Republicans are still not convinced by Haley’s claim that Trump can’t be elected.

NO WORRIES

On Tuesday, Democrat Dean Phillips lost to a candidate who wasn’t even on the ticket. This is an unusual thing to happen. For Biden, this result is a relief because it means he won’t have to deal with an awkward night that could have been talked about on talk shows for weeks. Biden was on track to win the primary by almost 50 percentage points, even though he didn’t qualify for the poll in New Hampshire and there were no delegates at stake. This was because voters had written his name in the ticket.

The primary gave Phillips, a congressman from Minnesota and the only moderate Democrat running against Biden, a chance to get more attention, especially since New Hampshire was punished by the national Democratic Party for not following the more diverse South Carolina primary schedule. Even though Biden’s team tried to stay out of the primary, Phillips spent a lot of money on TV and radio ads before it. Democrats in the area organised a write-in campaign for Biden so that their state wouldn’t turn into a political joke.

The White House sees it as a symbolic win that more than 30,000 Democrats braved the cold to write in Biden’s name, even though it won’t change the outcome of the election. If you look closely, you’ll notice that some Democrats don’t seem to mind that South Carolina has the first official Democratic primary on February 3.

INDIES TO THE RESCUE?

Haley counted on a lot of independent voters, who were allowed to vote in the primary, to balance out the support that Trump got from typical Republicans. Early results from Edison Research exit polls pointed in this direction. According to the polls, 34% of voters who called themselves moderates or Democrats showed up to vote. This is up from 29% in 2016, when Trump easily won the primary.

Out of the 43% of voters who said they were independents, Haley had 60% of their votes, while Trump only had 35%. In addition, 73% of the votes she got came from people who called themselves moderates. Trump, on the other hand, won by a 70% to 28% edge among people who said they were Republicans. The study also showed that more than half of voters (51%) thought Biden did not win the 2020 race properly. Trump has made the same claim. Trump got 86% of these votes, which is the vast majority. Also, 54% of people thought Trump would still be qualified to be president even if he was found guilty of a crime. On the other hand, 42% thought he wasn’t fit, and 84% of those people backed Haley. This means that Trump’s court problems might get in the way of him beating Biden in the general election.

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